Iowa 2012 Caucus Results

Well it's finally here, Iowa's republican Caucus.  Months ago I foresaw the top 3, Ron Paul, Romney and Santorum.  I wasn't quite sure how it would work out in those three, but I knew they would be the front runners.  This last weekend the Des Moines Register released it's historically most accurate poll when determining who would make out with top billing at the caucuses.  The poll took place over four days and the end result was Romney in first at 24%, Paul with 22% and Santorum with 15%.  These numbers are important, obviously, but not as important as the inner mechanics going on within the guts of the poll.  A closer look at the day to day trends reveals some surprising changes, even for myself.  The poll has Romney roughly staying the same, Santorum jumping up into the low 20s, which is probably the part that surprises other people, but the part that surprises me, a lot, is that Paul's support has fallen so steeply.  In order to average out to that 22%, with the last two days coming in at 16%, that means Ron Paul was at roughly 28% those first two days.  That is a 12 point drop over a 4 day period which I see as a combination of factors.  The more minor parts are probably the foreign policy theory he has taken and a maybe a bit of the insidiously named "Family Research Council" endorsement of Santorum.  Incidentally, that with the fact all other candidates have surged and shamed already, is the reason for Santorum's own surge.  Anyway, the biggest factor in the Ron Paul plummet is probably the rather racist past that has come to light.  Most people looking to Paul for hope saw his policies, for the most part, as "justice" and "fair" overall, and seeing such things come to light has rocked their view of the candidate.

There is another important statistic as well, when asked how likely people were to go caucus for their candidate, Santorum supporters rang out at something in the high 70s, while Romney and Paul were in the mid-high 50s.  This also surprised me about Ron Paul, as his supporters are rabidly vocal and I can only guess also has something to do with the recent newsletter scandal.

Tonight, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the lineup will be:

1.) Dick Santorum (see google definition of Santorum)
2.) Willard Romney
3.) Ron Paul
4.) Rick Perry
5.) Newt Gingrich
6.) Michelle Bachmann

I'm still not 100% confident in that, maybe about 75%, but if I had to bet on it, that's my bet, based on a lifetime growing up in rural western Iowa in the midst of the conservative of conservative Republicans.